Dataset rows
3,200
Synthetic purchase and exposure observations across eight fixed Scotch expressions.
Commercial framing
Not a category dashboard. A progression question.
Retail teams can already see which Scotch bottles move. What is harder to see is whether the category is creating believable movement from safe and familiar bottles into more specific, more premium, and more preference-led buying. That is the lens used here.
Business question
What signals show real progression, and where does the shelf interrupt it?
The case tracks product role, shelf location, gifting cues, display type, and imperfect repeat behaviour. The goal is to separate one-off premium moments from actual movement up the ladder.
Commercial read
Recruitment bottle
Black LabelLooks like the most credible step-up without asking the shopper to abandon familiarity.
Preference bottle
Lagavulin 16Much smaller pool, but stronger signs of commitment once the buyer gets there.
Packaging caution
Gift boxesThey expand occasion buying faster than they build routine repeat.
Shelf lesson
Standard shelfDiscovery needs theatre, but loyalty still shows up where bottles remain easy to find.
Product ladder
The category still lives in entry and core, but the real story sits in the bridge upward.
The volume base remains familiar and accessible. Premium and distinctive expressions matter because they change value and preference, not because they dominate count. That makes the bridge products more important than a simple cheapest-versus-most-expensive ranking.
Entry and core still carry the category day to day, while premium and distinctive sharply lift price without taking over the whole shelf story.
Gateway products sit where price is still manageable and self-purchase remains comfortable. Destination products are narrower, but they hold stronger repeat once preference is formed.
Price progression
The first real hesitation arrives before the category even reaches its top shelf.
The useful tension in this model is that exploratory interest keeps rising into the first visible step-up zone, but repeat does not rise with it. That is usually where interest stops being the same thing as comfort.
The `R320-R420` jump is the first place where premiumization starts to look fragile. Shoppers are willing to browse upward before they are willing to live there repeatedly.
Packaging and occasion
Gift packaging helps bottles travel, but not always return.
Gift boxes matter because they help create premium trial without necessarily creating preference-led self-purchase. That is useful commercially, but it should not be mistaken for loyalty.
Gift-boxed bottles over-index in gift buying. The uplift is real, but the follow-up repeat story is softer.
What this changes
Packaging should be treated as recruitment, not proof.
A bottle that works in a gifting moment still needs standard shelf support, flavour clarity, and a believable price step if it is going to move into someone's own routine later.
Retail influence
Discovery and loyalty do not happen in quite the same place.
Feature displays and gift sections are useful for attention. Standard shelf conditions are where habitual, lower-theatre repeat becomes more visible. That distinction helps explain why some bottles create buzz without building a base.
Feature-led discovery is visible, but repeat is steadier where the shelf feels familiar and easy to return to.
The dataset preserves plenty of stall: shoppers who stay accessible, try upward without returning, or need promo support before stepping up.
Evidence and links
The commercial read, the supporting visuals, and the files underneath it.
The point of the project is to make progression legible in a retail setting. These are the six key reads that hold the argument together, plus the underlying files and links back to the wider III.IV portfolio.
01
Black Label is the bridge
It has the best mix of recognisable comfort, self-purchase confidence, and step-up intent.
02
Lagavulin is the commitment play
It wins less often, but it wins with stronger signs of preference-led repeat.
03
The first stretch is the real tension
The cleanest friction appears in the R320-R420 step, well before the most distinctive bottles.
04
Gift packaging recruits
It gets premium bottles into baskets, but does not automatically turn them into habits.
05
Discovery is not loyalty
Feature displays drive attention, but standard shelf presence does more of the repeat work.
06
Some trial is weak by design
Certain premium bottles invite curiosity faster than they earn a place in someone's regular rotation.
Dataset summary
| File | Rows | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| scotch_progression_observations.csv | 3,200 | Purchase and shelf observations across products, retail context, behaviour, and messy text cues |
| scotch_progression_intelligence.ipynb | 8 sections | Notebook walkthrough of progression, friction, gifting, display influence, and stall |
| insights.md | 6 insights | Decision-oriented findings for commercial and category discussion |
| validation_summary.json | 4 key reads | Quick snapshot of gateway, destination, friction point, and core signal |
Project links
From live walkthrough to portfolio case file.
The standalone page carries the visual story. The III.IV case file holds the portfolio framing, and the GitHub repository contains the dataset, notebook, charts, and build files.